Lockdowns don't work.

PJ Diaz

Well-Known Member
No idea, but how do you explain that places like Kern and Tulare Counties have close to double the infection rate of Monterey or Santa Cruz Counties?

I'll tell you one thing is that Kern and Tulare are both Republican Counties in CA, and Santa Cruz and Monterey are Democrat Counties.
 

abandonconflict

Well-Known Member
No idea, but how do you explain that places like Kern and Tulare Counties have close to double the infection rate of Monterey or Santa Cruz Counties?

I'll tell you one thing is that Kern and Tulare are both Republican Counties in CA, and Santa Cruz and Monterey are Democrat Counties.
That must be it, the virus has a predilection for those affiliated with one party and not the other.

:wall:
 

PJ Diaz

Well-Known Member
Splitting hairs. Not all counties have been able to fully implement it and what you describe is little more than going a few kilometers out of your way from one suburb to the next. The fact remains that very few people from outside of your region have been in to your region since the "stay at home order" and that accounts for the very minor slowing in the rate of spread which is still not sufficient to prevent the rate from increasing beyond the ability of the authorities to trace and test. It's still growing exponentially, doubling every 8 days through human to human spread, despite the lockdown.
Santa Cruz to Capitola to Watsonville (3 cities with unincorporated areas in between) is about 20 miles each way. I could easily drive another 25 miles down to Monterey (in a different County) no problem as well.
 

abandonconflict

Well-Known Member
Santa Cruz to Capitola to Watsonville (3 cities with unincorporated areas in between) is about 20 miles each way. I could easily drive another 25 miles down to Monterey (in a different County) no problem as well.
So how many people would you say actually are defying the order and doing so? It doesn't sound like you're under lockdown at all. Not sure how you're arguing that there's a complete lockdown of the sort I've repeatedly described and insisting that it has flattened the curve that isn't fucking flat. Cases are continuing to double every 8 days there, very slightly slower than models have suggested. You said it's because of lockdowns and you're not even under lockdown.

Are you just dumb?
 

PJ Diaz

Well-Known Member
..doubling every 8 days through human to human spread, despite the lockdown.
Also not true (here at least). On April 12th there were 91 confirmed cases in Santa Cruz County. Eight days before that on April 4th, there were 65 cases. My math says that's not anywhere near close to doubling in 8 days.
 

abandonconflict

Well-Known Member
Also not true (here at least). On April 12th there were 91 confirmed cases in Santa Cruz County. Eight days before that on April 4th, there were 65 cases. My math says that's not anywhere near close to doubling in 8 days.
So you didn;t read the Mercury News article that you citied when you demanded I explain why your county has a lockdown that isn't really a lockdown flattening a curve that isn't really flat.

This is why you're even less popular here than I am.
 

Fogdog

Well-Known Member
@PJ Diaz Here, I'll link your own article back to you, ya dingus.

What am I missing here? When I read the first few lines, it seems to me to be saying that shelter in place, people staying home is flattening the curve and cutting the rate of new infections.

SANTA CRUZ — In a sign that shelter-in-place efforts may be making an impact, data suggests Santa Cruz County is seeing more success at flattening the coronavirus curve than almost anywhere else in the state.
As of Thursday, the small county had 80 confirmed cases of COVID-19. Cases are doubling about every eight days, according to county Health Officer Dr. Gail Newel.
“There’s very optimistic news there, although it’s very early,” Newel said at a news conference Thursday. “We are among the very best counties in California in terms of flattening the curve.”
 

PJ Diaz

Well-Known Member
So how many people would you say actually are defying the order and doing so? It doesn't sound like you're under lockdown at all. Not sure how you're arguing that there's a complete lockdown of the sort I've repeatedly described and insisting that it has flattened the curve that isn't fucking flat. Cases are continuing to double every 8 days there, very slightly slower than models have suggested. You said it's because of lockdowns and you're not even under lockdown.

Are you just dumb?
I asked you to define lockdown, and you said it was all schools and public spaces being closed. That's what we have here. Private stores are not all closed, assuming they are considered essential. Home Depot and Costco are both essential businesses, and there;s nothing to stop me from driving to the Costco or Home Depot in Monterey County to get essentials. Last week, my dog found a hold in my fence, and a bate is getting old, so I got some essential lumber to repair the fence and build a new gate. I bought some seeds to grow essential food too. I stood in line 6-feet apart while I waited to get in the store. Show me where you aren't able to do that currently.

Sure if you want to drive to an hour Santa Cruz from Fremont to get some "essential drinks" and hang out on the street with 6 buddies you will all get $1000 tickets:

 

PJ Diaz

Well-Known Member
@PJ Diaz Here, I'll link your own article back to you, ya dingus.

I posted newer data, as that article is 4-days old, and using older data. This is simply more proof that we are further flattening the curve.

You also must have missed this part of the article:

"Another dataset, compiled by the LA Times, shows the Santa Cruz County case-growth rate may be even slower — doubling every 13 days, based on data from the past week."
 

jimihendrix1

Well-Known Member
Its only fucking common sense f you dont mass congregate, and stay away from people as much as possible the virus will not spread like wildfire. Its only fucking common sense.

Also while it may be true young people dont suffer as bad of consequences, they still spread the shit like a motherfucker.
 

abandonconflict

Well-Known Member
Its only fucking common sense f you dont mass congregate, and stay away from people as much as possible the virus will not spread like wildfire. Its only fucking common sense.

Also while it may be true young people dont suffer as bad of consequences, they still spread the shit like a motherfucker.
But the places like Rome and NYC with the most severe lockdowns which have been in place since early March have not kept cases from skyrocketting. Cracking down on the public has not stopped people in those places from coming into contact with fomites. People will socially distance on their own if they understand what a fomite is whether a uniformed goon is there to force them to do so or not. People who do not will still not wash their hands and will still touch their faces. Closing all businesses and public places just forces people into fewer places. Leaving people with few options of where to get supplies just forces more people from wider areas into those places to come into contact with fomites they will then bring home. Strict lockdown, not flat curve.

Lockdown or not, those most susceptible to infection have and did continue to get infected.

Conversely, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore and South Korea have actual flat curves, like really flat, not fake flat like what the other guy was telling me. In those places, you can go out and order a burger after class and then take your classmate to your place and lick her toes before you sniff her panties. No fucking lockdown, flat curve.
 

abandonconflict

Well-Known Member
What am I missing here? When I read the first few lines, it seems to me to be saying that shelter in place, people staying home is flattening the curve and cutting the rate of new infections.

SANTA CRUZ — In a sign that shelter-in-place efforts may be making an impact, data suggests Santa Cruz County is seeing more success at flattening the coronavirus curve than almost anywhere else in the state.
As of Thursday, the small county had 80 confirmed cases of COVID-19. Cases are doubling about every eight days, according to county Health Officer Dr. Gail Newel.
“There’s very optimistic news there, although it’s very early,” Newel said at a news conference Thursday. “We are among the very best counties in California in terms of flattening the curve.”
Only very slightly, cases still doubling every 8 days. That's exponential growth. That's not flat. Furthermore, that slight gain can just as well be explained by the travel restrictions in the region.
 

abandonconflict

Well-Known Member
I asked you to define lockdown, and you said it was all schools and public spaces being closed. That's what we have here. Private stores are not all closed, assuming they are considered essential. Home Depot and Costco are both essential businesses, and there;s nothing to stop me from driving to the Costco or Home Depot in Monterey County to get essentials. Last week, my dog found a hold in my fence, and a bate is getting old, so I got some essential lumber to repair the fence and build a new gate. I bought some seeds to grow essential food too. I stood in line 6-feet apart while I waited to get in the store. Show me where you aren't able to do that currently.

Sure if you want to drive to an hour Santa Cruz from Fremont to get some "essential drinks" and hang out on the street with 6 buddies you will all get $1000 tickets:

Those officers just had those guys within two meters of eachother with no masks for extended periods of time. That's what I see.
 

Budley Doright

Well-Known Member
I’ll stick with the experts on this one,20017473-38E4-4795-A5D3-3D0C327DE541.png at some point lock downs are the only way to slow the spread and not overwhelm the healthcare system. I’ve noticed Sweden is no longer brought up in ops examples of successful models, why? Here is just one of a multitude of references that lockdowns can help.
 

Kassiopeija

Well-Known Member
Only very slightly, cases still doubling every 8 days. That's exponential growth. That's not flat. Furthermore, that slight gain can just as well be explained by the travel restrictions in the region.
thats the datasheet for whole Germany:
Screenshot_20200414-124524.png
the lockdown broke the exponential growth which occured within the first 3-4 weeks pretty fast, and the rate of daily new-infection is declining.
And that all awhile increased testing is being done in the background, which actually uncovers otherwise hidden cases with a greater chance - actually distorting the above graphic unfavourably.
There are many such errors... thats why we need to wait and take no chances...
 

abandonconflict

Well-Known Member
lockdown broke the exponential growth which occured within the first 3-4 weeks pretty fast, and the rate of daily new-infection is declining.
And that all awhile increased testing is being done in the background, which actually uncovers otherwise hidden cases with a greater chance - actually distorting the above graphic unfavourably.
Just by reading this it is clear that the lockdown had no effect. The testing allowed the spread to be controlled. Testing didn't interfere with the lockdown or distort the so called success of the lockdown. Testing was the solution. Testing was the very reason why the graph saw an inflection point. If the lockdowns were to have any effect on the transimissability of the virus it would not have taken weeks. The incubation period is 8 days on average. Those who were most susceptible to infection became infected until all of them were infected and the rest isolated themselves and washed their hands properly. There is no other way to interpret this data. They began their lockdown 24 days ago. There was no discernable change in transmission rates until they got testing caught up with the rate of infection.
 
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