Lockdowns don't work.

doublejj

doublejj

Well-Known Member
tangerinegreen555

tangerinegreen555

Well-Known Member
Wonder why those Swedish scientists are signing petitions against the gov't's current approach over there?

More deaths than their Scandavian neighbors and scientists say watch out in a couple or 3 weeks.

I'll be keeping an eye on that one.

Edit: seriously, this will be a good experiment.

Well maybe not so good for some Swedes who get sick. But you'll see how this outlier approach pans out with clarity in a month.

I predict they spike up over the next month.
 
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Fogdog

Fogdog

Well-Known Member
zeddd said:
There isn’t a vax for any Coronavirus; Sars1, Mers, common cold. They are rna viruses so the vaccine has to trigger antibodies which also sometimes cause “disease enhancement “ which is a real concern with these diseases, and sometimes they react with the lungs or kidneys. The trials didn’t even get through the “valley of death” animal stages this is why they have no effective vaccine yet.
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thanks for the explanation.
 
zeddd

zeddd

Well-Known Member
tangerinegreen555 said:
Sounds about right. I think everything would have to go perfect at 27' though. They could try to infect some lab animal at 27' and miss 999 times out of 1000. Not that I'm willing to risk it.

Ideally, just stay away from people for a while.
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My concern is really the fact that micro droplets containing the virus can spread further if there is air movement. People who live in very close proximity would be at a higher risk than is currently accepted.
 
rkymtnman

rkymtnman

Well-Known Member
zeddd said:
My concern is really the fact that micro droplets containing the virus can spread further if there is air movement. People who live in very close proximity would be at a higher risk than is currently accepted.
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even like older apartment bldgs that have central heat/AC system, it could blow into everybody's apartment before long.
 
rkymtnman

rkymtnman

Well-Known Member
tangerinegreen555 said:
Wonder why those Swedish scientists are signing petitions against the gov't's current approach over there?

More deaths than their Scandavian neighbors and scientists say watch out in a couple or 3 weeks.

I'll be keeping an eye on that one.

Edit: seriously, this will be a good experiment.

Well maybe not so good for some Swedes who get sick. But you'll see how this outlier approach pans out with clarity in a month.

I predict they spike up over the next month.
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a swedish friend of mine was over here in the US from late Feb to mid March and when he got home he didn't have to do anything. luckily all 4 that were in his group didn't get it here. they might get it back at home though.
 
Kassiopeija

Kassiopeija

Well-Known Member
zeddd said:
The trials didn’t even get through the “valley of death” animal stages this is why they have no effective vaccine yet.
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so there is this in vivo study in humans from 2008, in which also another similar successful study is mentioned. All this to confirm we have a vaccine against both MERS and SARS1 which was proven to be not lethal on humans. So that we in times of crisis, have at least a counter-agent. But since the threat was already eradicated, no need to go further and waste money for the development of a product that will not sell at all. But 4 years time - although without pressure.

A SARS DNA vaccine induces neutralizing antibody and cellular immune responses in healthy adults in a Phase I clinical trial
 

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abandonconflict

abandonconflict

Well-Known Member
Budley Doright said:
And there is no proof it doesn’t .....Have another look at Sweden as of today. Their curve should be flat according to this thread. The quick response to lockdown travel was IMO the key. Keeping numbers low enough to track and isolate seems to be the one main factor ...... it’s still pretty early to prove what was/is successful. Seems your offering a good “hypothesis” though ;).
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This doesn't even make sense. There's ample evidence it doesn't flatten the curve simply based on the 3 cases I keep citing. Especially in NYC and Rome. Lockdown implemented, cases skyrocketed and average incubation is 8 days. It is sill hard to argue that Italy's curve has flattened and it's been well over a month since they implemented strict lockdowns.
rkymtnman said:
i saw another video simulation where it was a guy in a grocery store coughing and how a small green cloud near him went pretty much thoughout the entire store.
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Exactly my point. You go to the one store that is allowed to operate within walking distance and you're almost certainly exposed to fomites there. You could almost argue the lockdowns make it worse.
 
abandonconflict

abandonconflict

Well-Known Member
rollitup said:
What I say: Anyone who tries to identify a "flattening curve" from day-to-day observations ...

does not understand how to analyze curves!



:mrgreen:
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But I'm not. It's been over a month in NYC and in Rome that strict lockdowns have been in place. The incubation period is 8 days on average. We're killing the economy and it's compounding the problem, not flattening the curve.
 
abandonconflict

abandonconflict

Well-Known Member
Fogdog said:
I don't understand why you say the curve isn't affected by lockdowns. Of course curves aren't flat. They are curves. Lockdowns aren't making curves flat, they flatten the curve compared to no interventions. In some of the worst hit areas the curve in deaths per day is decreasing.

So, agree the curve is not flat. Agree there are lots of deaths. Disagree that lockdowns don't work. What are you seeing that I don't in the following graphic?

View attachment 4532571

The curve for the US is flattening. We had a bad few days before it did and we have a ways to go before we can let up on lockdowns in the hot spots but the logic behind locking down is solid and the results are showing up. Perhaps I'm missing something, so do tell.
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All of those could as easily be explained by two other factors. Travel restrictions and the fact that all of those most susceptible having been infected. China's just lying.

The most successful cases, South Korea, Hong Kong and Taiwan implemented no such lockdowns. A higher percentage of South Korea has been infected than that of the US. No lockdowns, businesses open, schools open.

Strict lockdowns in Rome, NYC, cases continued skyrocketting for well over a month.
 
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