My grow is on a little larger scale, for me to really replace HPS with CMH I would need taller ceilings and 1kW CMH, still I wonder about the yields, HPS seems like it can yield more per square foot but I have a lot more experimenting to do on that part. For me it's not about yield per watt but per sqft.
As far as LED penetration goes, my COB setup really puts out intense light and can penetrate, actually have to run it further away than I run HPS. So GOOD LED can penetrate.
Basically if you get good equipment LED, CMH, HPS, MH can all grow well and each has it's advantages. It's up to the grower to determine what is the best fit for their grow. For someone with a 3x3 tent, a 315 CMH is just right. There are LED options that will handle that as well. A 400 watt HPS would handle it. I personally think the disadvantage to LED is it lacks UV. You need a little UV to get max THC production.