The "D" day pool, best guess as to when Trump is out

[redivider]

I don't think Donald Trump will be removed from office. He will either resign in protest or serve out his full term.

He will NOT be removed.

I believe over 40% and closer to 50% of voters still fiercely support him and that's enough for Republicans to take the risk.

I also don't think Democrats will regain both chambers of Congress in the mid-terms. I think they'll have a small 2-3 seat majority in the Senate (not filibuster proof) and Republicans will still have control of the House by over 30 votes.

We'll go back to the first 2 years of the Obama era, where Republicans dictated the majority of policy even though Dems had majorities in both Chambers.

Unless Dems win back the presidency (longshot in my opinion) next election I see the US sliding closer and closer to Russia and Eastern Europe in terms of economic competitiveness. With the rise of open and blatant corruption, legalized bribes to politicians, and lax regulatory framework - I just don't see the US's standing lasting much longer....

I anticipate a Paul Ryan/Ted Cruz ticket in 2020 (don't know who will be pres/vice pres) and if the election were held tomorrow - I think they would win vs. any Democratic Ticket, even the sacred Bernie Sanders.

I don't care what the polls say - they showed a 98-99% chance of us having a Clinton White House and they were wrong.

I think red states are just that stupid and loyal.

 

[Fogdog]

2024 due to term limits.

LOL

"drain the swamp"

 

[Fogdog]

I don't think Donald Trump will be removed from office. He will either resign in protest or serve out his full term.

He will NOT be removed.

I believe over 40% and closer to 50% of voters still fiercely support him and that's enough for Republicans to take the risk.

I also don't think Democrats will regain both chambers of Congress in the mid-terms. I think they'll have a small 2-3 seat majority in the Senate (not filibuster proof) and Republicans will still have control of the House by over 30 votes.

We'll go back to the first 2 years of the Obama era, where Republicans dictated the majority of policy even though Dems had majorities in both Chambers.

Unless Dems win back the presidency (longshot in my opinion) next election I see the US sliding closer and closer to Russia and Eastern Europe in terms of economic competitiveness. With the rise of open and blatant corruption, legalized bribes to politicians, and lax regulatory framework - I just don't see the US's standing lasting much longer....

I anticipate a Paul Ryan/Ted Cruz ticket in 2020 (don't know who will be pres/vice pres) and if the election were held tomorrow - I think they would win vs. any Democratic Ticket, even the sacred Bernie Sanders.

I don't care what the polls say - they showed a 98-99% chance of us having a Clinton White House and they were wrong.

I think red states are just that stupid and loyal.

Agree with your opinion that Trump will not be removed from office.

While I think it is more likely Democrats will take the house (reason given below), whether or not they take the Senate it is unrealistic to think they will have the super majority needed to remove The Pussy Grabber In Chief from his commode of office.

All members of the House are up for election in 2018 and 2020. Republican House has really only continued to oppose progress. Other than giving the 1% a bonus in the form of a tax break, it didn't get anything done. Legislatively speaking, 2018 is going to be worse for them. They will have nothing much to justify continuation in office in the 2018 election. That, coupled with an angry electorate that is motivated to show up, dismal approval rating for Trump, widespread dissatisfaction with wages and jobs growth and history of the House flipping under similar circumstances, I think the House is likely to flip to Democrat than remain Republican.

The Senate only has 1/3 of its members running in any election so the chances for taking seats away from Republicans are diminished. Also, comparably few Republicans are up for election (8 out of 51 seats) this year compared to Democrats (25 out of 49 seats). This means Democrats would have to win all of their elections and take two seats away from Republicans to secure a slim majority. It's possible but odds makers put the chance of Democratic control of the Senate at about 45% --- after factoring in the Alabama special election. Assuming D's beat the odds, there is no chance they will have hold of 60 or so votes. Will 8 or more Republicans vote to remove Trump from office? Maybe, but how likely is that?

I guess it all depends on a third event, which is that Muellar produces smoking hot evidence of crimes with Trump's fingerprints all over them to the point where even deplorables can agree he must go.

My best case scenario is the House flips to Democrats, Muellar produces enough evidence to justify impeachment and the Senate doesn't remove him from office. Trump will remain but be a cancer to Republican's chances in 2020. We will have two more years of partisan gridlock that prevents Republicans from further damaging social programs like Medicare, Medicaid and SNAP.

Then again, Trump could start a war, which Americans always love and support and Trump wins again in 2020. God, I hate these times.

 

[redivider]

Agree with your opinion that Trump will not be removed from office.

While I think it is more likely Democrats will take the house (reason given below), whether or not they take the Senate it is unrealistic to think they will have the super majority needed to remove The Pussy Grabber In Chief from his commode of office.

All members of the House are up for election in 2018 and 2020. Republican House has really only continued to oppose progress. Other than giving the 1% a bonus in the form of a tax break, it didn't get anything done. Legislatively speaking, 2018 is going to be worse for them. They will have nothing much to justify continuation in office in the 2018 election. That, coupled with an angry electorate that is motivated to show up, dismal approval rating for Trump, widespread dissatisfaction with wages and jobs growth and history of the House flipping under similar circumstances, I think the House is likely to flip to Democrat than remain Republican.

The Senate only has 1/3 of its members running in any election so the chances for taking seats away from Republicans are diminished. Also, comparably few Republicans are up for election (8 out of 51 seats) this year compared to Democrats (25 out of 49 seats). This means Democrats would have to win all of their elections and take two seats away from Republicans to secure a slim majority. It's possible but odds makers put the chance of Democratic control of the Senate at about 45% --- after factoring in the Alabama special election. Assuming D's beat the odds, there is no chance they will have hold of 60 or so votes. Will 8 or more Republicans vote to remove Trump from office? Maybe, but how likely is that?

I guess it all depends on a third event, which is that Muellar produces smoking hot evidence of crimes with Trump's fingerprints all over them to the point where even deplorables can agree he must go.

My best case scenario is the House flips to Democrats, Muellar produces enough evidence to justify impeachment and the Senate doesn't remove him from office. Trump will remain but be a cancer to Republican's chances in 2020. We will have two more years of partisan gridlock that prevents Republicans from further damaging social programs like Medicare, Medicaid and SNAP.

Then again, Trump could start a war, which Americans always love and support and Trump wins again in 2020. God, I hate these times.

I can't be that optimistic, I lost my faith in American's ability to rationalize and make intelligent informed decisions back when the Obama/Kenya thing was happening.

If Trump hangs on to 2020 he won't run again, but he won't be removed. He'll have to resign.

in terms of Congressional elections - I think enough Americans are racist and uneducated enough that Republicans will stay with control of the House and the Senate will flip to Democrat by just 1 or 2 seats and the 2020 election won't be a 'landslide' or a 'blue tidal wave' or whatever the hell they call it these days.

dems might scrape by but with their current message of..... nobody even knows what they stand for anymore.

they support conservative policies draped blue sheets, but the only difference between most democrats and republicans is republicans show more racism... dems hide it. but in terms of overall policy they haven't really put out a message to counteract/undo the shitstorm republicans are pushing.... not a single one - all I have heard is 'we're not Trump' and 'Can you believe Trump tweeted this' and 'Thoughts and Prayers'.... that's not a message and that's not how you win an election.....

 

[Fogdog]

I can't be that optimistic, I lost my faith in American's ability to rationalize and make intelligent informed decisions back when the Obama/Kenya thing was happening.

If Trump hangs on to 2020 he won't run again, but he won't be removed. He'll have to resign.

in terms of Congressional elections - I think enough Americans are racist and uneducated enough that Republicans will stay with control of the House and the Senate will flip to Democrat by just 1 or 2 seats and the 2020 election won't be a 'landslide' or a 'blue tidal wave' or whatever the hell they call it these days.

dems might scrape by but with their current message of..... nobody even knows what they stand for anymore.

they support conservative policies draped blue sheets, but the only difference between most democrats and republicans is republicans show more racism... dems hide it. but in terms of overall policy they haven't really put out a message to counteract/undo the shitstorm republicans are pushing.... not a single one - all I have heard is 'we're not Trump' and 'Can you believe Trump tweeted this' and 'Thoughts and Prayers'.... that's not a message and that's not how you win an election.....

We'll see. It's quite reasonable to expect the worst. After all the best way to predict the weather is by saying it will be like it was yesterday.

At the state level, which you probably aren't hearing, it is a different story. Many more new progressive liberal candidates and there is a sense of urgency for change away from conservative control. I have a sense that the tide is turning but it's happening too slowly. The grip that Republicans have on gerrymandering might get them through the next couple of election cycles in the House.

I was mostly responding to the idea that the Senate could flip to Democrat. I don't think that is likely. The numbers are too much in favor of Republicans.

Trump will never resign.

It is older, white America that gave us Trump. They are on their way out and taking the country with them on their way.

 

[too larry]

My guess is Monday, January 20th, 2025.

 

[DIY-HP-LED]

I don't think Donald Trump will be removed from office. He will either resign in protest or serve out his full term.

He will NOT be removed.

I believe over 40% and closer to 50% of voters still fiercely support him and that's enough for Republicans to take the risk.

I also don't think Democrats will regain both chambers of Congress in the mid-terms. I think they'll have a small 2-3 seat majority in the Senate (not filibuster proof) and Republicans will still have control of the House by over 30 votes.

We'll go back to the first 2 years of the Obama era, where Republicans dictated the majority of policy even though Dems had majorities in both Chambers.

Unless Dems win back the presidency (longshot in my opinion) next election I see the US sliding closer and closer to Russia and Eastern Europe in terms of economic competitiveness. With the rise of open and blatant corruption, legalized bribes to politicians, and lax regulatory framework - I just don't see the US's standing lasting much longer....

I anticipate a Paul Ryan/Ted Cruz ticket in 2020 (don't know who will be pres/vice pres) and if the election were held tomorrow - I think they would win vs. any Democratic Ticket, even the sacred Bernie Sanders.

I don't care what the polls say - they showed a 98-99% chance of us having a Clinton White House and they were wrong.

I think red states are just that stupid and loyal.

Well, I ain't gonna accuse ya of being an optimist!

I figure events are gonna get away from the republicans soon, this is gonna take on the charaistics of a snowball rushing down a mountain side. I read history as a hobby, read what happened to Jeff Davis at the end of the civil war, the south turned on him like a pack of dogs.

If the republicans already have trouble in the south, wait for the trials and all the rest of the shit that's gonna come out during the election campaign. 2/3 of the electorate is gonna make a difference in november, democrats and independents will be out in droves and many republicans are gonna stay home. Any republican house member has gotta be worried and those in regular districts must be terrified, think some are gonna break with the leadership?

Many folks think America is so polarized that an old fashioned landslide isn't possible, I beg to differ. New rules are gonna apply on this one at least. Besides, a majority in the house of just one seat, means the democrats control the investigating and oversight committees, they can make supporting Trump problematic for the remaining republicans and life Hell for Trump and his minions. BENGHAZI!

 

[DIY-HP-LED]

Does anybody think Jeff Sessions is gonna run for his old senate seat in november? Think he'll be charged with perjury before then by his own justice department? Boy is this shit gonna be fun, too bad it's also gonna be, disgusting, tragic and dangerous for the country.

 

[Sour Wreck]

yea too bad america is caught up in trumps and his voters shit !!!!!

bannon was subpoenaed by mueller today. to testify in front of a grand jury. i would kill to be a fly on the wall in there.

then bannon refused to testify to the house today, so they issued him another subpoena

shit getting ready to hit the fan

 

[Chunky Stool]

Many trump voters were undecided until the last minute.
They will get tired of making excuses for that lying sack of shit, and reevaluate their allegiance.

We will get through this but it won't be fun.

Kinda like a colonoscopy...

 

[Chunky Stool]

yea too bad america is caught up in trumps and his voters shit !!!!!

bannon was subpoenaed by mueller today. to testify in front of a grand jury. i would kill to be a fly on the wall in there.

then bannon refused to testify to the house today, so they issued him another subpoena

shit getting ready to hit the fan

Unfortunately, this is going to end up in court -- which is never a quick process.
I have heard many Trump supporters say "if this investigation had any merit, charges would have been filed by now".
I'm pretty sure that's what state TV (fox news) has been telling people for the last 6+ months, and is actually good strategy if you think about it. The longer they drag their feet, the more skeptical their base becomes.

Fuckers.

 

[DIY-HP-LED]

yea too bad america is caught up in trumps and his voters shit !!!!!

bannon was subpoenaed by mueller today. to testify in front of a grand jury. i would kill to be a fly on the wall in there.

then bannon refused to testify to the house today, so they issued him another subpoena

shit getting ready to hit the fan

I figure this bunch of rats will turn on each other and Donald real quick, loyalty is not their strong suit. They will all run for cover and sing like birds. It's only the republicans who are supporting Trump, without their betrayal of their constitutional duties, gravity would grab hold of the Donald real quick. Simple majorities in the house and senate will do a lot to remove the props supporting him. The big advantage the democrats will have is that he's guilty as sin and there's a ton of evidence to convict on multiple counts and charges. The lifers in the justice department will be after these assholes hammer and tongs in hand, without much encouragement from the democrats required.

 

[Chunky Stool]

I figure this bunch of rats will turn on each other and Donald real quick, loyalty is not their strong suit. They will all run for cover and sing like birds. It's only the republicans who are supporting Trump, without their betrayal of their constitutional duties, gravity would grab hold of the Donald real quick. Simple majorities in the house and senate will do a lot to remove the props supporting him. The big advantage the democrats will have is that he's guilty as sin and there's a ton of evidence to convict on multiple counts and charges. The lifers in the justice department will be after these assholes hammer and tongs in hand, without much encouragement from the democrats required.

Yep.
Honor among thieves died with the old-school mafia decades ago.

 

[Huckster79]

The circus has been tame till now, wait till Kush and Jr are charged and all the other trials, revelations, scandals, etc, take place during election season in 2018.They will force Donld to pardon his family members on federal charges and then use state charges on them, they will force pardons before election time. They are saving the real juicy russian stuff until after Trump is removed from office and it will be used to not just put him away, but to discredit him too..

Even some of the gerrymandered republicans will worry about their seats when this shit hits the fan. How can Kevin Nunes escape conspiracy or obstruction of justice charges in 2019? He might not be the only congressman to face investigation either. Eventually Jeff Sessions is gonna go to jail for perjury too, as is anybody connected to this bullshit. There are the press people, intelligence, justice and FBI officials that are highly motivated on this one. Every patriotic American will want a piece of their asses, ya don't do this kinda shit without paying dearly and that goes for Vlad a company as well.

There are lot's of highly educated, experienced and smart people on our side on this one, I say a large majority of them. They will deal with the Donald according to the law, or you won't have a country, it's that simple.

I say keep the faith, he'll be gone by summer or it will be one Hell of a hot one on the streets of America this summer. Mayors, councillors and cops will lead the peaceful protests. The charges and trials are about to begin and it will look very bad for the republicans during election season, they are gone for a generation, not just an election cycle or two.

Your optimism is refreshing. I used to be one myself, im not saying that sarcastically either. I pray you are right, i fear you may be wrong. Dont get me wrong, i hope you are a damned prophet... just not feeling crazy optimistic on our survival as a republic with any dignity right now.

 

[DIY-HP-LED]

These kinds of situations often look bleek before they start to improve. The chances of the British during the early part of WW2 wasn't too good either, fortunately they made friends and Hitler made enemies. We're early days into this mess, the good guys are just getting started here and the judges watch the news too. There are a ton of court cases and charges coming and it's election season too, Mueller is gonna have a ton of evidence and public testimony. We are 8 months out from a midterm election and it looks like the democrats will have majorities in the house and senate and control of the investigations and oversight.

The otherside in this fiasco must be terrified at the the looming legal and political events, patriotic Americans have every reason for optimism. Give it a little time and just watch the show, history is being made before your very eyes. It's like the old Chinese curse, "May you live in interesting times". Trump is worried and it's gonna get a lot worse, he'll probably come apart at the seams before this ends.

 

[DIY-HP-LED]

We are right in the middle of TV season for much of the country, lot's of folks will be paying attention to the news for awhile. They are going to go into the summer holidays with lot's to talk about, for Trump and the Republicans it will be a long hot summer indeed. By labor day the public should be well lathered up with treasonous revelations coming from the trials and news coverage, that's the traditional beginning of the campaign season. The current polls show the republicans getting murdered come next election, what will they be like in november after a winter, spring and summer of fun?

Like I said, patriotic Americans should be optimistic about this, it's difficult to have patience, cause if ya love yer country, it's hard to bear the likes of Trump being it's face to the world and in control of a 1/3 of it's government. It's painful to put up with the sleaziness, dishonesty and betrayal for long, don't ever forget, people give their lives for their country, feelings run deep.

Wonder what they will call the Donald after it's all said and done, "first prisoner" perhaps? Maybe by act of congress the supermax prison number 00000001 will be reserved for the first prisoner. I wonder if Trump would read that bill before he signs it, think it would send a message? Good idea for a first democratic bill for him to sign, being the #1 should be appealing to him, I figure he'd sign.

 

[Sour Wreck]

Unfortunately, this is going to end up in court -- which is never a quick process.
I have heard many Trump supporters say "if this investigation had any merit, charges would have been filed by now".
I'm pretty sure that's what state TV (fox news) has been telling people for the last 6+ months, and is actually good strategy if you think about it. The longer they drag their feet, the more skeptical their base becomes.

Fuckers.

charges have been filed and 2 have pled guilty.

faux news viewers are the dumbest of all cable news viewers. there was even a poll that showed faux news viewers were more uninformed than those that did not watch the news.

if i know rednecks like i think i do, there will be violence before this is all said and done.

 

[Sour Wreck]

We are right in the middle of TV season for much of the country, lot's of folks will be paying attention to the news for awhile. They are going to go into the summer holidays with lot's to talk about, for Trump and the Republicans it will be a long hot summer indeed. By labor day the public should be well lathered up with treasonous revelations coming from the trials and news coverage, that's the traditional beginning of the campaign season. The current polls show the republicans getting murdered come next election, what will they be like in november after a winter, spring and summer of fun?

Like I said, patriotic Americans should be optimistic about this, it's difficult to have patience, cause if ya love yer country, it's hard to bear the likes of Trump being it's face to the world and in control of a 1/3 of it's government. It's painful to put up with the sleaziness, dishonesty and betrayal for long, don't ever forget, people give their lives for their country, feelings run deep.

Wonder what they will call the Donald after it's all said and done, "first prisoner" perhaps? Maybe by act of congress the supermax prison number 00000001 will be reserved for the first prisoner. I wonder if Trump would read that bill before he signs it, think it would send a message? Good idea for a first democratic bill for him to sign, being the #1 should be appealing to him, I figure he'd sign.

i am also not as optimistic as you.

i do believe the truth will come out. and i do believe in karma.

however, i also believe that 32% of our population are cult members and facts will never affect them.

 

[DIY-HP-LED]

i am also not as optimistic as you.

i do believe the truth will come out. and i do believe in karma.

however, i also believe that 32% of our population are cult members and facts will never affect them.

I'm more of a realist than an optimist, there was a state seat flipped to the democrats in Wisconsin yesterday and the pundits are saying the republicans are getting real worried. The polls are telling the tale, but the motivation of the voters will be the real factor. You are dealing with a cult of personality at this point and it's one of the reasons they will put him away forever when they get rid of him, republicans will (secretly) be the most eager to keep him in jail.

This shit is coming, make no mistake, like I said the law of gravity will take him down and the republicans with him in one big flaming wreck. The only question is whether the flaming wreckage will explode in midair before crashing to the ground or come down in one piece. If ya know the history of your country you'll have a bit more faith, lot's of shit slid by in history, not this kinda shit. This kind of thing gets dealt with, cause if it doesn't yer done as a free country, far too many people know the stakes to let this go.

Thirty some percent don't win the kind of midterm election your gonna have this year, young people, minorities and women will vote in historic numbers and it won't be the republicans they will vote for. The republicans are about to become a regional party at best for a generation and the leadership knows it, they won't back Trump too much. There is a point where they have to think about the survival of the party, even though they've put party above principal and patriotism. They also have to keep their own asses out of jail.

 

[Sour Wreck]

I'm more of a realist than an optimist, there was a state seat flipped to the democrats in Wisconsin yesterday and the pundits are saying the republicans are getting real worried. The polls are telling the tale, but the motivation of the voters will be the real factor. You are dealing with a cult of personality at this point and it's one of the reasons they will put him away forever when they get rid of him, republicans will (secretly) be the most eager to keep him in jail.

This shit is coming, make no mistake, like I said the law of gravity will take him down and the republicans with him in one big flaming wreck. The only question is whether the flaming wreckage will explode in midair before crashing to the ground or come down in one piece. If ya know the history of your country you'll have a bit more faith, lot's of shit slid by in history, not this kinda shit. This kind of thing gets dealt with, cause if it doesn't yer done as a free country, far too many people know the stakes to let this go.

Thirty some percent don't win the kind of midterm election your gonna have this year, young people, minorities and women will vote in historic numbers and it won't be the republicans they will vote for. The republicans are about to become a regional party at best for a generation and the leadership knows it, they won't back Trump too much. There is a point where they have to think about the survival of the party, even though they've put party above principal and patriotism. They also have to keep their own asses out of jail.

Hope you are right

Republicans better start acting like adults again.