According To Many Polls...
- Thread starter VTXDave
- Start date
HotNSexyMILF
Well-Known Member
Confirms what I was told in my experiences.. thanx Vi..
Bongulator
Well-Known Member
Looks to me like the choice is a bailout or a new depression, or at least a mighty recession. Already, people with 750+ credit ratings are beginning to have problems getting car loans. A cash-only economy isn't far away at this point. I don't really care, personally; I'm ready for a depression or a massive recession, whatever you wanna call it.
Would a big recession or a bailout be best long-term for most people? I have no idea. But we lived without credit sometime in the past, right? I guess if you have some cash or hard assets, recessions are actually not a bad thing -- that's a good time to buy all the stuff that desperate people start selling to feed themselves, cheap. That's my plan if we/they decide that a big recession is preferable to a bailout.
For myself, I don't foresee any need for credit of any kind in my future, at least not for a decade or two, soooo...I just don't care how they work it out. I'm totally flexible on this. I'd feel a little bad if there are a buncha people suffering from a big recession/depression, but hey, it's an opportunity for those more fortunate.
Would a big recession or a bailout be best long-term for most people? I have no idea. But we lived without credit sometime in the past, right? I guess if you have some cash or hard assets, recessions are actually not a bad thing -- that's a good time to buy all the stuff that desperate people start selling to feed themselves, cheap. That's my plan if we/they decide that a big recession is preferable to a bailout.
For myself, I don't foresee any need for credit of any kind in my future, at least not for a decade or two, soooo...I just don't care how they work it out. I'm totally flexible on this. I'd feel a little bad if there are a buncha people suffering from a big recession/depression, but hey, it's an opportunity for those more fortunate.
HotNSexyMILF
Well-Known Member
The bailout would just cause a longer recession/depression.. either way things are going to be bad.. but honestly, I'd rather take the year or two or hard times than 10+ years..
GrowRebel
Well-Known Member
I highly doubt we will be the ones congress listens to ... we are no longer represented ... most in congress represent the corporate structure ... I can see Kucinch, Paul and a handful of others for the people voting no ... but not enough to stop it ... they will come to a "deal" and bail out the very assholes that started the mess ... many will suffer because of them ... they need to as well ... but they won't... look for a bailout ... our will no longer matters ...
Stoney McFried
Well-Known Member
There was a protest in my town today.
VictorVIcious
Well-Known Member
The other way to defeat any bailout is to still not buy houses. There ara lot of people that have available credit that don't use it. VV
Bongulator
Well-Known Member
Oh, I don't think we'll recover from this in any one or two years if we let things collapse. One or two years, that wouldn't be all that terrible. But it'll be worse than that, a lot worse, from all the signs. You've got 150+ year old institutions disappearing here, businesses that DID survive the Great Depression, but are now gone. And, it's a vicious cycle, once it starts rolling.
Step 1) Banks collapse, then there's less credit available out there, less liquidity in the market. They stop loaning even to each other, except at exorbitant rates, or to anyone who isn't provably wealthy. We're just about to this step now. Without any liquidity in the market, we'll be firmly in step 1 within 3 months if not sooner.
Step 2) Bank runs begin, people start taking out all their money. Rich folks buy hard assets. The price of gold/silver/platinum begins to soar. This probably happens within six months. (So buy gold now if you're against the bailout, it'll be worth much more later.)
Step 3) Lacking liquidity in the market, businesses that are credit-dependent, which is a whole lot of them, begin cutting back. The layoffs begin. Unemployment soars. It reached 25% in the Great Depression. Nobody knows how bad it could be this time. Timeframe -- 12-18 months from now. It takes a while to get to this step. When the investors jumped out of windows in the Depression, most people shrugged and went back to work. A year later, the hard times really began, for everyone.
Step 4) Call this one The Long Suffering. Very little work available. If you're dependent on having a job for your income, start worrying, a lot. Soup kitchens spring up. Homelessness climbs. Shantytowns of homeless begin to appear. Crime soars, especially theft of all kinds, but really, all kinds of crime. This is the time when the poor (and the percentage of the middle class who were very job-dependent on income and are now homeless and poor too) start selling off anything and everything, and this is when those with some means step in and start buying up stuff at firesale prices, to sell some years later for big profit. Nobody knows how long this step could last. Could be 3 years, could be 10 years, might never really recover.
Step 5) Slowly, businesses rebuild, as best they can, using cash and whatever credit they can find that they can afford. As banks slowly spring back to life, credit begins to flow again, though initially at very high interest rates (supply and demand), allowing more people to move back into buildings instead of living in tents. As more credit becomes available, the economy begins to accelerate. Eventually, someday, maybe, we reach the same point we were at 3 years ago.
The indications are that this could be at least as bad as the Great Depression. So, I'd guess 5-10 years before we're past this, without any liquidity aid. I don't know if infusing the markets with liquidity would just delay this and make it worse, or not. Nobody knows. With some actual enforced regulation though, I don't think the Big Collapse is inevitable. But I'm assuming it *is* inevitable, just in case either there is no bailout or there is one and it doesn't work.
It's a gamble either way. But boy, if the Big Collapse happens and we didn't even *try* to avert it, a lot of people will be standing in soup lines and then kicking themselves all the way back to their shantytown tent cities.
Step 1) Banks collapse, then there's less credit available out there, less liquidity in the market. They stop loaning even to each other, except at exorbitant rates, or to anyone who isn't provably wealthy. We're just about to this step now. Without any liquidity in the market, we'll be firmly in step 1 within 3 months if not sooner.
Step 2) Bank runs begin, people start taking out all their money. Rich folks buy hard assets. The price of gold/silver/platinum begins to soar. This probably happens within six months. (So buy gold now if you're against the bailout, it'll be worth much more later.)
Step 3) Lacking liquidity in the market, businesses that are credit-dependent, which is a whole lot of them, begin cutting back. The layoffs begin. Unemployment soars. It reached 25% in the Great Depression. Nobody knows how bad it could be this time. Timeframe -- 12-18 months from now. It takes a while to get to this step. When the investors jumped out of windows in the Depression, most people shrugged and went back to work. A year later, the hard times really began, for everyone.
Step 4) Call this one The Long Suffering. Very little work available. If you're dependent on having a job for your income, start worrying, a lot. Soup kitchens spring up. Homelessness climbs. Shantytowns of homeless begin to appear. Crime soars, especially theft of all kinds, but really, all kinds of crime. This is the time when the poor (and the percentage of the middle class who were very job-dependent on income and are now homeless and poor too) start selling off anything and everything, and this is when those with some means step in and start buying up stuff at firesale prices, to sell some years later for big profit. Nobody knows how long this step could last. Could be 3 years, could be 10 years, might never really recover.
Step 5) Slowly, businesses rebuild, as best they can, using cash and whatever credit they can find that they can afford. As banks slowly spring back to life, credit begins to flow again, though initially at very high interest rates (supply and demand), allowing more people to move back into buildings instead of living in tents. As more credit becomes available, the economy begins to accelerate. Eventually, someday, maybe, we reach the same point we were at 3 years ago.
The indications are that this could be at least as bad as the Great Depression. So, I'd guess 5-10 years before we're past this, without any liquidity aid. I don't know if infusing the markets with liquidity would just delay this and make it worse, or not. Nobody knows. With some actual enforced regulation though, I don't think the Big Collapse is inevitable. But I'm assuming it *is* inevitable, just in case either there is no bailout or there is one and it doesn't work.
It's a gamble either way. But boy, if the Big Collapse happens and we didn't even *try* to avert it, a lot of people will be standing in soup lines and then kicking themselves all the way back to their shantytown tent cities.
VictorVIcious
Well-Known Member
Delaying a problem doesn't change the fact that there is a problem. If no one is buying houses at todays inflated values and the housing prices fall, the building materials I want to buy will cost less. VV
wannabe grower
Well-Known Member
And weed will become the new currency...start ramping up production people 
VTXDave
Well-Known Member
I don't think many of the farmers and ranchers up here in the Sierra would barter their goods for pot.And weed will become the new currency...start ramping up production people
ccodiane
New Member
It would be for them city dwellers.......we'll trade their cars for weed. Leave 'em stranded, waiting for the next weed delivery.
Seamaiden
Well-Known Member
Where'd you get the 200K number from? Did I miss something? I thought we were about 300,000,000 "strong". Let's do a little searching and find out how many we are...
U.S. POPClock Projection
Ok, working the proper numbers I come up with the following:
$85,000,000,000.00 / 305,265,854 = $278.445826643
That's not exactly an economic stimulus for us on a personal level, nor is it really going to do much of anything for us financially. Your mileage may vary.
VTXDave
Well-Known Member
If this bailout gets passed, I can't think of a more blatant act of "Taxation without Representation" in recent times.
If this bailout goes through, we will be taxed for it in spite of the fact that we, as a populace have asked our representatives to vote against it.
What was the premise that touched off the American Revolution again? Oh yeah...
"Taxation Without Representation"...That's it.
If this bailout goes through, we will be taxed for it in spite of the fact that we, as a populace have asked our representatives to vote against it.
What was the premise that touched off the American Revolution again? Oh yeah...
"Taxation Without Representation"...That's it.
HotNSexyMILF
Well-Known Member
Well, seems they may have finally come to an agreement on the bailout.. possible vote for the House tmrw and Senate on Monday..
Deal reached on financial markets bailout
By CHARLES BABINGTON – 35 minutes ago
WASHINGTON (AP) — Congressional leaders and the Bush administration have reached a tentative deal on a bailout of imperiled financial markets that could cost taxpayers hundreds of billions of dollars.
The House could vote on it Sunday and the Senate on Monday. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi announced the accord just after midnight Saturday and said it still has to be put on paper. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson talked of finalizing the deal but added: "I think we're there... (see link for the rest of the article)
The Associated Press: Deal reached on financial markets bailout
Deal reached on financial markets bailout
By CHARLES BABINGTON – 35 minutes ago
WASHINGTON (AP) — Congressional leaders and the Bush administration have reached a tentative deal on a bailout of imperiled financial markets that could cost taxpayers hundreds of billions of dollars.
The House could vote on it Sunday and the Senate on Monday. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi announced the accord just after midnight Saturday and said it still has to be put on paper. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson talked of finalizing the deal but added: "I think we're there... (see link for the rest of the article)
The Associated Press: Deal reached on financial markets bailout