vostok
Well-Known Member
Not a day passes without fresh speculation about the possible impeachment of Donald Trump. In December, when former US security advisor Michael Flynn agreed to cooperate with investigators, UK bookies put the odds at 50/50 that it would happen within 12 months. Since then, events have only accelerated, including the FBI raid on April 9 of the offices of Michael Cohen, Trump’s personal lawyer.
In fact, the process has already started: on November 15, 2017, six Democrats in the House of Representatives sent Impeachment Articles to the House Judiciary Committee. The articles included obstruction of justice for firing James Comey, the FBI chief who was investigating Russian meddling with the 2016 election. A connection between Trump and this meddling could constitute treason, an impeachable offence specifically mentioned in the US Constitution (Article II, section 4). Next came accusations of accepting domestic and foreign emoluments beyond his designated salary as president. These too are forbidden by the Constitution (Article II, section 1, clause 7; Article I, section 9, clause 8). The six Democrats further said that Trump had undermined the judiciary and undermined freedom of the press, pillars of the Constitution that the president swears to uphold.
The Republican party has called these charges groundless and politically motivated. The House of Representatives and its Judiciary Committee are controlled by Republicans, so the Impeachment Articles generated little beyond Twitter posts. Should the political balance change, more consequential impeachment proceedings will start. The history of impeachment, however, shows that Trump is likely to stay in office.
Some history
American impeachment law has its origins in the English Civil War, but not everyone at the 1787 Constitutional Convention thought it should be applied to US presidents. Some felt that the legislative branch’s trying the executive was a breach of the separation of powers. Benjamin Franklin pointed out that if a president could not be removed for his misdeeds while in office, he would have every motivation to remain in office and would do so by any means – including tyranny – and could only be removed by death. The clauses for impeachment of the highest magistrate passed. Provisions of this kind only passed in France in 2014.
In the US Constitution, impeachment and conviction are not the same things. To impeach is to bring charges against a high-office holder. “The House of Representatives… shall have the sole Power of Impeachment,” the Constitution states (Article I, section 2). That means that the charges or articles must be brought in the House and can pass with a simple majority. The trial, however, will take place in the Senate. “When the President of the United States is tried, the Chief Justice shall preside: And no Person shall be convicted without the Concurrence of two thirds of the Members present” (Article I, section 3). It is thus possible to remove a sitting president from office, but this procedure does not make it easy or likely given the political hold he has on his party. A two-thirds majority in the Senate means that 67 out of the 100 senators must vote in favour of conviction.
To remove presidents, Articles of Impeachment have only been passed through the House of Representatives Judiciary Committee three times in US history and only been passed by the House of Representatives to the Senate for trial twice. For judges and other high officials, impeachment proceedings have been started in the House 62 times and Articles of Impeachment have been approved by the House 19 times, sometimes resulting in conviction and removal of Federal judges, one as recently as 2008, for perjury and bribery.

In fact, the process has already started: on November 15, 2017, six Democrats in the House of Representatives sent Impeachment Articles to the House Judiciary Committee. The articles included obstruction of justice for firing James Comey, the FBI chief who was investigating Russian meddling with the 2016 election. A connection between Trump and this meddling could constitute treason, an impeachable offence specifically mentioned in the US Constitution (Article II, section 4). Next came accusations of accepting domestic and foreign emoluments beyond his designated salary as president. These too are forbidden by the Constitution (Article II, section 1, clause 7; Article I, section 9, clause 8). The six Democrats further said that Trump had undermined the judiciary and undermined freedom of the press, pillars of the Constitution that the president swears to uphold.
The Republican party has called these charges groundless and politically motivated. The House of Representatives and its Judiciary Committee are controlled by Republicans, so the Impeachment Articles generated little beyond Twitter posts. Should the political balance change, more consequential impeachment proceedings will start. The history of impeachment, however, shows that Trump is likely to stay in office.
Some history
American impeachment law has its origins in the English Civil War, but not everyone at the 1787 Constitutional Convention thought it should be applied to US presidents. Some felt that the legislative branch’s trying the executive was a breach of the separation of powers. Benjamin Franklin pointed out that if a president could not be removed for his misdeeds while in office, he would have every motivation to remain in office and would do so by any means – including tyranny – and could only be removed by death. The clauses for impeachment of the highest magistrate passed. Provisions of this kind only passed in France in 2014.
In the US Constitution, impeachment and conviction are not the same things. To impeach is to bring charges against a high-office holder. “The House of Representatives… shall have the sole Power of Impeachment,” the Constitution states (Article I, section 2). That means that the charges or articles must be brought in the House and can pass with a simple majority. The trial, however, will take place in the Senate. “When the President of the United States is tried, the Chief Justice shall preside: And no Person shall be convicted without the Concurrence of two thirds of the Members present” (Article I, section 3). It is thus possible to remove a sitting president from office, but this procedure does not make it easy or likely given the political hold he has on his party. A two-thirds majority in the Senate means that 67 out of the 100 senators must vote in favour of conviction.
To remove presidents, Articles of Impeachment have only been passed through the House of Representatives Judiciary Committee three times in US history and only been passed by the House of Representatives to the Senate for trial twice. For judges and other high officials, impeachment proceedings have been started in the House 62 times and Articles of Impeachment have been approved by the House 19 times, sometimes resulting in conviction and removal of Federal judges, one as recently as 2008, for perjury and bribery.