A rational, reasonable price for pot?

[Taviddude]

They will tax the shit out of it. People will still buy underground because the taxes will be sky high. It will be like the modern day moonshiners. Taxed liquor vs un-taxed liquor.

 

[MyPetSkunk]

DEA dude's dream:

everyone else's nightmare:

Damn, someone has been fishing around in my septic tank. Specifically right after I ate my whole crop because I heard helicopters. I literally shit a brick. And yes, it required stitches.

 

[fb360]

Actually, competition results in higher quality at a cheaper price for the consumer. It is a win-win system, and is the fundamental basis of the free market system.

You restated exactly what the point was...

When you take away competition because the only way to succeed is to have MASSIVE production, you are left with LESS competition, ergo, a lower quality of goods.

 

[OGEvilgenius]

First and foremost, since I have added this, I would like to show the math again comparing liquor to pot:
My estimates on the market:
100$ for a lb of mersh
~1000$/lb of killer indoor.

1k/lb is an extremely good price in the free market. If you compare it in terms of consumption to liquor (I can drink a 5th in 1 night, which costs me ~$20) Therefore, i could consume 365 5ths, at 7.3k$/year. I can smoke about an 8th a day, which would take 128 days to complete a full lb. Using the same overall cost as a year of liquor consumption, it would equate to me consuming 2.85lbs in 1 year, at ~2500$/lb.

Secondly, just think about it dude. You say about 100$ per lb, yet give no reason to think that is even attainable.
Lets say you are growing indoors: It takes a minimum of about 2 month to produce flowers, even if you don't veg. Consequently, in the time you are growing your lb, you rack up:
2months of electricity
2months of nutes
2months of water
2months of labor
2months of equipment use

That is all for 1 lb, even before the actual harvest begins...
The ONLY way your prediction could work is if they did all of that on a MASSIVE scale. There is just no room for profit with your prediction of 100$/lb

It would be done on a MASSIVE scale. And he's basically correct. There would be niche markets for well trimmed goods and special genetics etc, but overall - most folks aren't gonna pay if the other stuff that's much cheaper does the same thing. Black markets make the price very very unreasonably high. Cocaine should be dirt cheap too. So should heroin.

 

[OGEvilgenius]

If you are talking true free market

Monsanto, Dupont and land o lakes will produce a strain that is both easy to trim and potent

Monsanto etc take advantage of the fact government is willing to grant and enforce intellectual monopolies on plant material.

 

[UncleBuck]

If you, as a buyer, are offered pot at $1,000 per pound trimmed, or $65 per pound untrimmed, which would you choose?

this question betrays your lack of knowledge on the subject.

there is no comparison between trimmed and untrimmed. it is like asking if you would wish to have a happy meal that has been stomped on and compressed into a solid block of processed crap for $0.65 or a nice hamburger and fries meal (with drink) from your local restaurant for $10.00.

i am no fancy rich folk, but i would opt for the ten dollar meal rather than the unseparable brick of bun and meat and fries for 65 cents.

The only time to do a good trim on weed is when it has not yet wilted.

the only way i would take untrimmed weed is if it were hung on a line, not touching, etc. this would present an insurmountable obstacle for practical transport.

and even if that wish came true, i would have to either A) spend many, many man hours trimming the untrimmed, $65 pound or B) but a multi-thousand dollar machine to achieve an inferior trim.

if i had you as a customer of mine, i imagine you would be the type to ask at every visit which treadmills were running the best at the moment and purchase accordingly.

You restated exactly what the point was...

When you take away competition because the only way to succeed is to have MASSIVE production, you are left with LESS competition, ergo, a lower quality of goods.

your point is 100% valid.

that said, i would also add that other markets may exist as well. people still run illegal moonshine despite alcohol prohibition being a thing of the past, people still buy up $100 dollar bottles of wine despite $5 6-packs being readily available.

 

[OGEvilgenius]

Do you remember I mentioned that they stink? Like the pricy ProTrim. They stink. A good non-manual trim tech doesn't exist. cn

You can get a reasonable trim from them. Good enough that you will get decent commercial prices... at least on the black market.

There will be a market for hand trimmed elite stuff, but is it really gonna be that huge? You can buy a lb of untrimmed and make some super potent brownies or you can buy that lb of trimmed elite and make X% more brownies. This is the way most folks are going to look at it. And I suspect the conniseurs you describe will simply grow their own.

 

[UncleBuck]

You can get a reasonable trim from them. Good enough that you will get decent commercial prices... at least on the black market.

There will be a market for hand trimmed elite stuff, but is it really gonna be that huge? You can buy a lb of untrimmed and make some super potent brownies or you can buy that lb of trimmed elite and make X% more brownies. This is the way most folks are going to look at it. And I suspect the conniseurs you describe will simply grow their own.

i know exceedingly few people who do more than brew their own special reserve of alcohol. growing cannabis is a bit tougher to navigate IMO.

cannabis is a unique market in ways. some people just want a caffeine buzz from coffee or a cheap beer buzz, but i see a huge market in high quality, organic, human-manicured weed despite any prevalence of other, cheaper producers.

cannabis being unique in the niche of mood altering substances is something that seems less oft discussed.

 

[UncleBuck]

one last point before i pass the bong hit of no return: desert dude attempted to make some point about the free market always producing higher quality due to competition and whatnot.

i dare anyone to match the quality of cannabis we are seeing growers far better than myself currently produce. quality is sky high in the cannabis market as we speak.

increased competition may lower the price somewhat, but many of us producers (myself included) already operate near that price floor.

where i live in oregon is the absolute cannabis price floor of the nation. no one will argue that. craigslist searches will bear that out.

even if our prices had to compete nationwide (such as places like new jersey, where my income would be 4x higher than here), the floor would not go down too very far.

desertdude is underestimating the price floor of what a huge market share would settle for.

 

[kpmarine]

this question betrays your lack of knowledge on the subject.

there is no comparison between trimmed and untrimmed. it is like asking if you would wish to have a happy meal that has been stomped on and compressed into a solid block of processed crap for $0.65 or a nice hamburger and fries meal (with drink) from your local restaurant for $10.00.

i am no fancy rich folk, but i would opt for the ten dollar meal rather than the unseparable brick of bun and meat and fries for 65 cents.



the only way i would take untrimmed weed is if it were hung on a line, not touching, etc. this would present an insurmountable obstacle for practical transport.

and even if that wish came true, i would have to either A) spend many, many man hours trimming the untrimmed, $65 pound or B) but a multi-thousand dollar machine to achieve an inferior trim.

if i had you as a customer of mine, i imagine you would be the type to ask at every visit which treadmills were running the best at the moment and purchase accordingly.



your point is 100% valid.

that said, i would also add that other markets may exist as well. people still run illegal moonshine despite alcohol prohibition being a thing of the past, people still buy up $100 dollar bottles of wine despite $5 6-packs being readily available.

I wish to dispute your statement about prohibition. On a federal level, alcohol is fine. On a state and county level, booze can be forbidden. When I was in Kentucky, I was in the middle of a dry county. There are still places in the US where you have to drive 45 minutes for a 6-pack. Those are the places where shining is still strong.

Aside from that, I agree that weed will fetch a fairly high price for some time. If nothing else, big businesses aren't going to try and charge $100 a lb when current prices are $4k+ in some regions. If people are already willing to pay it, and used to paying it, why drop prices? I understand that competition will lower the price to a certain extent, but I highly doubt a pack of marlboro greens is going to significantly under-price homegrown for quite some time after it goes into mass-production. Why undercut the current market that much, that suddenly? Undercut the competition by 10%, and you sell more without taking a huge hit to your potential profit; undercut by 97% of market value off the bat (That's the drop from $3k an lb. to $100 an lb., with a bit of lazy math.), and you just murdered your profit margins for no good reason.

 

[desert dude]

They will tax the shit out of it. People will still buy underground because the taxes will be sky high. It will be like the modern day moonshiners. Taxed liquor vs un-taxed liquor.

I think you are right about this. Look for enforcement to get much stricter after legalization. When you take the bread out of the government's mouth, they will double the goon squad.

 

[desert dude]

one last point before i pass the bong hit of no return: desert dude attempted to make some point about the free market always producing higher quality due to competition and whatnot.

i dare anyone to match the quality of cannabis we are seeing growers far better than myself currently produce. quality is sky high in the cannabis market as we speak.

increased competition may lower the price somewhat, but many of us producers (myself included) already operate near that price floor.

where i live in oregon is the absolute cannabis price floor of the nation. no one will argue that. craigslist searches will bear that out.

even if our prices had to compete nationwide (such as places like new jersey, where my income would be 4x higher than here), the floor would not go down too very far.

desertdude is underestimating the price floor of what a huge market share would settle for.

Good point, Buck, and it really is just a demonstration that I am right. The cannabis business right now is the ultimate free market. There is no FDA to interfere, no OSHA, no EPA, no ATF, no regulation whatever. The only restriction is that it is illegal, which results in a huge prohibition premium.

As a result of this free wheeling market the world has the most innovative gardeners catering to a multi-billion dollar business. Remove the prohibition premium and the business will necessarily evolve to a business like alcohol/tobacco. Tobacco is completely analogous to cannabis. They are both grown, harvested, dried and cured in more or less the same manner. If anything, cannabis seems much more robust than tobacco.

You experts have spent about 100 posts telling me I am full of shit. I posted reasonable itemized estimates of costs and arrived at what I think is a rational pot price for a small producer. It it time for you experts to post itemized estimates of costs to bolster your case for pt prices to remain in the prohibition premium range?

 

[desert dude]

I wish to dispute your statement about prohibition. On a federal level, alcohol is fine. On a state and county level, booze can be forbidden. When I was in Kentucky, I was in the middle of a dry county. There are still places in the US where you have to drive 45 minutes for a 6-pack. Those are the places where shining is still strong.

Aside from that, I agree that weed will fetch a fairly high price for some time. If nothing else, big businesses aren't going to try and charge $100 a lb when current prices are $4k+ in some regions. If people are already willing to pay it, and used to paying it, why drop prices? I understand that competition will lower the price to a certain extent, but I highly doubt a pack of marlboro greens is going to significantly under-price homegrown for quite some time after it goes into mass-production. Why undercut the current market that much, that suddenly? Undercut the competition by 10%, and you sell more without taking a huge hit to your potential profit; undercut by 97% of market value off the bat (That's the drop from $3k an lb. to $100 an lb., with a bit of lazy math.), and you just murdered your profit margins for no good reason.

I agree with you. Every seller is going to cling to current prices as best they can. I don't think the price will drop immediately, for the reasons you stated. They will drop, though. The only fly in the ointment is taxes.

My fear is that our leaders will look at the current price and do the calculations and conclude that the prohibition premium is about 90% and they will set tax rates to scoop up all that "revenue". If that happens, there will essentially be no change to the current market except that enforcement against the "tax cheaters", that is all you guys on RIU, will be much more vigorously pursued.

 

[UncleBuck]

...it really is just a demonstration that I am right...

what isn't in your world?

 

[Prisoner #56802]

$10 a gram + tax for top shelf.......and have specials where you get a free pre-rolled joint for bringing in a new customer. No free concentrates

 

[Grandpapy]

I agree with Desert Dude to a point.
Exports, Imports, Industrial uses will all help with bringing down the wholesale price.
Here in lies the problem, with so much profits to be made on a global scale and the inability of the "Hemp Industry" to fall within the framework of Energy, Banking or Chemical it gets little backing.
Once Monsanto says they can make more money by legalizing it nationwide then they can by the Prohibition, well, we will all be buying it at starbucks.

But hand grown, tenderly loved weed will always be worth more. JMO

 

[cannabineer]

You can get a reasonable trim from them. Good enough that you will get decent commercial prices... at least on the black market.

There will be a market for hand trimmed elite stuff, but is it really gonna be that huge? You can buy a lb of untrimmed and make some super potent brownies or you can buy that lb of trimmed elite and make X% more brownies. This is the way most folks are going to look at it. And I suspect the conniseurs you describe will simply grow their own.

"Reasonable" is subjective. I also worry that "reasonable" might be sales talk for "indifferent". I will hurl my gauntlet down before the windmill and remain magnificent in my unreason. SANCHO! My armor - !! cn

 

[hotrodharley]

The value will lie with the knowledge needed to grow and grow right, not in the commodity itself. Those who would finance larger operations are always woefully short of the expertise needed to have their investments actually pan out. We will be selling ourselves, not our product.

 

[fb360]

your point is 100% valid.

that said, i would also add that other markets may exist as well. people still run illegal moonshine despite alcohol prohibition being a thing of the past, people still buy up $100 dollar bottles of wine despite $5 6-packs being readily available.

Yeah, I agree

There is no way that the massive producers can put the care, and effort into creating the dankest of the dank for 100$/lb. Production would just be too quick and large for, I'd venture to say, even 1/10th of the flowers to ever be touched or monitored for bugs, pm, etc. Cannabineer makes a good argument for my point with just the trimming aspect of harvest. Much like liquor example you mentioned, weed will come in varying degrees of quality, flavor, smell, potency, color, etc. I even think that weed might follow in the footsteps of microbreweries, where in this instance, the weed produced at smaller scales is a homemade bred strain which individuals seek out for its unique characteristics. Much like how I like to seek me out some good beer.

 

[fb360]

It would be done on a MASSIVE scale. And he's basically correct. There would be niche markets for well trimmed goods and special genetics etc, but overall - most folks aren't gonna pay if the other stuff that's much cheaper does the same thing. Black markets make the price very very unreasonably high. Cocaine should be dirt cheap too. So should heroin.

I'm the one who stated it would have to be done on a massive scale.

I'm the one that stated there would have to be different markets because there is no way you can achieve the highest quality at the largest scale, simple manufacturing philosophy.

I already pay for and grow, only A+++ pot. We have been paying higher for quality throughout this WOP... I don't buy mersh because I can throw 5g into a blunt, for cheap, and get high with a massive headache. We have also argued this point with the liquor industry. Just because you can buy a 30pack of BudLight for $20, doesn't mean that 15$ 12packs of BlueMoon aren't disappearing off the shelves. Same with hard liquor. Same with food, and everything else where quality greatly affects the outcome.