When VCR's first came out they were very expensive and somewhat heavier. As more and more companies began to make them, they became quite a bit cheaper.
Legalization will affect prices, a large variable will be the amount of taxation and the level the free market will be restricted via regulation. If the taxation remains high enough, the black market will survive ( albeit probably at lower sales prices).
Demand will be met easily though, the regulation scheme will allow government protectionism to favor their cronies, who will be permitted to produce on a huge level, acres and acres of HIGH GRADE WEED, while the home grower will not be allowed to.
Quality will still command a higher price, but not to the price scale that exists today.
Eventually thru regulation, a fancy word for favoritism granted to cronies, small growers for the most part will be put out of business.
The days of big money in growing weed will shift my friend. It's already happening.
Taxed and regulated is a scam....wait and see.
Yeah, I agree with the economics of your point, but from my experience cannabis falls outside of the normal laws of economics. I doubt demand could ever be met. I have a unique perspective when it comes to distribution. I was fortunate to be around a lot of heavy weight holders in and outside of my family. The east coast has an insatiable appetite and cannabis being an annual plant is only going to exacerbate the issue when demand sky rockets, due to legalization. Think about the billions upon billions of cannabis consumption dollars that are estimated by economists now, which roughly equals hundreds of thousands of pounds produced on a yearly basis, which is probably a rough estimate. Look at how many people flocked to Colorado (and other legal states) for the chance to consume cannabis for the first time in their lives. Cannabis would be regulated as a commodity and the prices would fluctuate based off demand and be highly taxed on the state and federal level, but demand would never be met. There will never be a point where countries or people say hey, we have enough gasoline, apples, corn, rice, etc.
Furthermore, I look at it from this perspective, as someone who wholesold everything I've sold going back to '93; at $3600 lb (friends), $2800-$3200 lb (family), and at a rate of $225 per oz up until an entire lb on the lowest end of the scale. At a rough estimated expenses cost to have a perpetual grow for one year with a 1000w digital ballast (preferably 2x600 lamps on a digital splitter) in a 4x8 tent it's not hard to be extremely profitable:
$100 (utilities) a month x(12) + $80 (nutrients) quarterly x4 + $200 (lamps) semi-annually x2 + $120 (miscellaneous expenses) $1200 + $320 + $400 + $120
= $2100
In this type of setup with a 4x4 tent and a 250w cfl lamp for clones and the vegetation phase to supplement the 1000w perpetual flowering room, I can produce 2-3 lbs bi-monthly. That's 12-18 lbs per year x $2800 (on the low scale) = $33,600-$50,400
Look at how much wiggle room you have to be profitable. Legalization would have no effect on an underground grower who understands economics and has an established clientele. Also, more often than not consistency will provide you with a customer base that's basically waiting in the wings for your harvests, so you'll sell out immediately or soon there after.
Stay safe.
