could pot be worthless in 2 years?

Los Reefersaurus

Los Reefersaurus

Well-Known Member
IMHO weed doesn't scale that well, the price of good weed will fluctuate in the short term while more folks get into it , but in the long term because of the very high quality demands of the market, the price will stabilize. As the industry matures and the folk who can grow great dope will stay and the folk who are stary eyed and chasing the $ will move on to something else. I hope that great weed ended up around 1800 a pound, seems fair to everyone concerned
 
ttystikk

ttystikk

Well-Known Member
Los Reefersaurus said:
IMHO weed doesn't scale that well, the price of good weed will fluctuate in the short term while more folks get into it , but in the long term because of the very high quality demands of the market, the price will stabilize. As the industry matures and the folk who can grow great dope will stay and the folk who are stary eyed and chasing the $ will move on to something else. I hope that great weed ended up around 1800 a pound, seems fair to everyone concerned
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I'm in the technology end of this growing industry and my thesis that high quality medicine can be grown for ever lower prices has never been more true than now, and none of the trends look likely to change soon.

Once supply and demand come into better balance, dollar a gram prices are completely realistic.

The biggest obstacle to this balance isn't technological it biological, it's LEGAL.
 
Los Reefersaurus

Los Reefersaurus

Well-Known Member
The problem with the teck though it is always better, it always seems to be costlier. A point that is interesting, is the med companies that are in BIG trouble right now because of the fungicides they are using basically there are companies that have to revamp their entire infrastructure, destroy their current crops. AND have do recalls, AND are open to a class action lawsuit. I would not buy a pot stock right now
 
ttystikk

ttystikk

Well-Known Member
Los Reefersaurus said:
The problem with the teck though it is always better, it always seems to be costlier. A point that is interesting, is the med companies that are in BIG trouble right now because of the fungicides they are using basically there are companies that have to revamp their entire infrastructure, destroy their current crops. AND have do recalls, AND are open to a class action lawsuit. I would not buy a pot stock right now
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Teething problems of a new industry.

From the inside looking out, I can tell you that the industry has never been more optimistic- or profitable.
 
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ForeverGreen42

Well-Known Member
ttystikk said:
I'm in the technology end of this growing industry and my thesis that high quality medicine can be grown for ever lower prices has never been more true than now, and none of the trends look likely to change soon.

Once supply and demand come into better balance, dollar a gram prices are completely realistic.

The biggest obstacle to this balance isn't technological it biological, it's LEGAL.
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Ultimately outdoor/greenhouse growers will wipe everyone else out, especially once federally legal where you can grow hundreds of thousands of plants. Indoor growers will be wiped out. I already produce greenhouse that looks as good to better than indoor (better than 95% of indoor in our state) for 50 bucks a pound. (And this was with all initial cost.. Soil, containers, etc. I should be able to get it around the 25/LB mark or under this year) Machine trimmed total cost of production = 75-100/LB, hand trimmed total cost of production = 150-250/LB. Indoor grow technology wont matter in the future unless solar becomes much cheaper and indoor growers will be wiped out of the market altogether. Indoor and outdoor growing are a whole different ball game in terms of what technology to utilize and how to most efficiently do things.
 
Moldy

Moldy

Well-Known Member
Organicpoop said:
I'm seeing so many "Groups" I don't want to suggest racism so lets say people from far away growing 100,200,300 and 500 plants per family.
They are practicality giving it away in a panic.


What are these large grows going to do next year when its even larger and larger and larger.

Give it away?
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You're probably right about the prices. It's a good thing I'm retired and don't a fuck about prices. Maybe when I get too old to grow maybe the prices will be low enough to enjoy. Right now I wouldn't spend more than $40 an oz. unless it was something special. I know my costs are less than that except for all the beans I kill ha-ha.
 
doublejj

doublejj

Well-Known Member
ForeverGreen42 said:
Ultimately outdoor/greenhouse growers will wipe everyone else out, especially once federally legal where you can grow hundreds of thousands of plants. Indoor growers will be wiped out. I already produce greenhouse that looks as good to better than indoor (better than 95% of indoor in our state) for 50 bucks a pound. (And this was with all initial cost.. Soil, containers, etc. I should be able to get it around the 25/LB mark or under this year) Machine trimmed total cost of production = 75-100/LB, hand trimmed total cost of production = 150-250/LB. Indoor grow technology wont matter in the future unless solar becomes much cheaper and indoor growers will be wiped out of the market altogether. Indoor and outdoor growing are a whole different ball game in terms of what technology to utilize and how to most efficiently do things.
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my plans for this season include 2 new greenhouses. Can't beat greenhouse for quality production.
 
PCXV

PCXV

Well-Known Member
ForeverGreen42 said:
Ultimately outdoor/greenhouse growers will wipe everyone else out, especially once federally legal where you can grow hundreds of thousands of plants. Indoor growers will be wiped out. I already produce greenhouse that looks as good to better than indoor (better than 95% of indoor in our state) for 50 bucks a pound. (And this was with all initial cost.. Soil, containers, etc. I should be able to get it around the 25/LB mark or under this year) Machine trimmed total cost of production = 75-100/LB, hand trimmed total cost of production = 150-250/LB. Indoor grow technology wont matter in the future unless solar becomes much cheaper and indoor growers will be wiped out of the market altogether. Indoor and outdoor growing are a whole different ball game in terms of what technology to utilize and how to most efficiently do things.
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What state? Pics of buds? Does that cost include testing? Very cool what is possible without artificial scarcity. The only reason I would keep growing at those prices is for fun and the personal satisfaction of knowing it is chemical/pesticide free.
 
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ForeverGreen42

Well-Known Member
doublejj said:
my plans for this season include 2 new greenhouses. Can't beat greenhouse for quality production.
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Absolutely! I just got my first greenhouse for the season up and going and all my seeds germinated. LET'S DO THIS!!
Hope everythings going well for you so far this season JJ!
ttystikk said:
More profitable in terms of total dollars earned in the industry. Pounds were higher back then because of scarcity.
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Scarcity and I would also imagine due to more risk involved under the Bush administration?
I think prices will start jumping as soon as the trump administration starts cracking down :/
Risk vs. Reward
 
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ForeverGreen42

Well-Known Member
PCXV said:
What state? Pics of buds? Does that cost include testing? Very cool what is possible without artificial scarcity. The only reason I would keep growing at those prices is for fun and the personal satisfaction of knowing it is chemical/pesticide free.
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No, not with testing. Unfortunately they dont allow caregivers/patients to test their product anymore to my knowledge in the state I am in. Only collectives. That was just my average cost of production last year, not what it goes for.
 
PCXV

PCXV

Well-Known Member
ForeverGreen42 said:
No, not with testing. Unfortunately they dont allow caregivers/patients to test their product anymore to my knowledge in the state I am in. Only collectives. That was just my average cost of production last year, not what it goes for.
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What kind of margins do you shoot for / what is typical total cost? Thanks for the reply.
 
greg nr

greg nr

Well-Known Member
There was a time where I brewed my own beer. It was all grain, clean, strong and delicious. I knew every ingredient in it.

I started brewing because there really wasn't any real diversity at the time. You might fingd a german import or two, but nothing really good.

I don't brew any more. I can go into any convenience store and find beers from all over the world. It's not hard to find craft brewed fresh beers from Belgium or Oregon.

And it isn't expensive. Brewers really need to be efficient and good to survive.

It will be interesting if we ever get to the point where there is a weed aisle in a supermarket or the equivalent of a liquor barn for weed. Heck, Trader Joes or Whole foods could carry it.

There will be a lot of production very quickly, demand will go up as well once stigmas fall away. The last roadblock will be when employers stop testing for it.

That's when sub $1/gram will happen at the retail level, taxes included.
 
sandhill larry

sandhill larry

Well-Known Member
It would take years, but the value could reach that of tomatoes given time. Although there are all sorts of tomatoes in the grocery store, gardeners across America still grow their favorite strains in the back yard. In fact, there are more back yard tomatoes grown per year than all the huge 1000 acre tomato farms put together. When you bite into a fresh picked Pruden's Purple, there is no doubt the value is equal to the effort given. Value to gardeners is determined by many things, dollars being pretty far down the list.
 
sandhill larry

sandhill larry

Well-Known Member
But I was years ahead of this move to smooth out production. 20 odd years ago I picked up a used tiller at the pawn shop. My buddy built me a fertilizer distributor to go on top, and I mounted a hand-push planter behind. I could spread the ferts, till them in, and plant the seeds in one pass. I only used it once. It worked great, but was pretty heavy handed with the seeds. I used about a pint in 200 yards. I had lots of "weeding" to get them down to a manageable number.
 
greg nr

greg nr

Well-Known Member
sandhill larry said:
But I was years ahead of this move to smooth out production. 20 odd years ago I picked up a used tiller at the pawn shop. My buddy built me a fertilizer distributor to go on top, and I mounted a hand-push planter behind. I could spread the ferts, till them in, and plant the seeds in one pass. I only used it once. It worked great, but was pretty heavy handed with the seeds. I used about a pint in 200 yards. I had lots of "weeding" to get them down to a manageable number.
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I worked on a dairy farm and this is exactly how we planted corn. One planter would cut the soil, lay a seed, cover it over and fertilize in one pass 12 rows across with plants perfectly spaced. We didn't even need to plow the soil first. One seed per hole.

Of course weed control wasn't exactly organic. ;)

It would be easy to do with pot seeds.
 
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