Spin cycle. How about something to back up your assertions?
So, what explains the drop in homicide?
What explains Brazil's homicide decline?
First, it is important to recall that 2017 was Brazil’s
annus horribilis - an orgy of lethal violence. More people were violently killed that year - almost 64,000 - than at any other time in the nation's history. The explosion of violence was due in large part to a rupture of a truce between the country’s two rival drug-trafficking factions - the Primary First Command (PCC) and the Red Command (CV) - and disputes over control of the country’s drugs trade. Inter-factional violence coincided with a boom in cocaine production in neighboring Colombia and Peru. The gradual decline in homicide in 2018 and 2019 can be interpreted as a kind of "correction".
Second, a cluster of measures introduced by the Temer administration in 2017 and 2018 may have also played a partial role in reducing murder. These include improvements in coordinating and managing police forces and improving investigatory capacities from the national to the state level. The federal authorities also started to more actively separate violent factional leaders from other inmates held in state prisons. Large-scale federal police and military operations were launched in some states to tamp down urban violence. Even so, these measures should not be over-stated: homicide rates started falling in states like Alagoas, Bahia, Minas Gerais, Rio Grande do Sul that did not receive much federal attention.
Third, and arguably even more important, several public security
programs and projects had already been launched by Brazilian states well before the 2018 presidential election. Examples include problem-oriented policing and social prevention measures in places like Ceara, Espirito Santo, Para and Pernambuco. These interventions focused on improving police training, focusing law enforcement and welfare assets on areas of concentrated disadvantage, and involving local communities more directly in the planning and execution of safety and security. Stricter controls were also imposed on some state prison facilities, though this did
not prevent brutal flare-ups in 2019 in some parts of the country.
Fourth, are structural factors like changes in the economy and demography of Brazil. It is conceivable that the slow-down in the Brazilian economy from 2014 to 2016 may have driven up property crimes while the marginal improvements since 2018 contributed to reducing them. Meanwhile, the long-term reduction in the country’s youth population - by over 12 percent since 2000 - may also have played a role. While these and other factors may have contributed to varying degrees, more study is surely required to better understand their specific influence.
How has Brazil managed to reduce its homicide rate by 20%? It's got little to do with Bolsonaro.Español Português
www.opendemocracy.net
Also, how about not cutting off the graph where it pleases you? Seems like there will be an upward trend again.
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